A comparison of COVID-19 to past pandemics if How similar were the precautions, the fatality rates, and the economic impacts? Janis McMath Editor-in-Chief Sn the beginning of this COVID-19 pandemic, news outlets everywhere have been trying to scrutinize this disease from every angle possible. A common tactic is to compare the current outbreak to ones long past. Practices during different pandemics mirror that of today’s, so their successes and failures can give us some insight. These comparisons also may inform us as to what we should be preparing for. Yet these past pandemics and epidemics are greatly contrasted to our current outbreak in a multitude of ways. There are multiple important factors to consider when trying to understand exactly how helpful some comparisons are while trying to navigate COVID-19. Spanish Flu 1918 Commonly called one of the deadliest pandemics ever, it is often highlighted that nearly as many Canadians died from this influenza than they did in WWI. Another comparison made is that this 1918 flu killed more people in just over a year than the black plague killed in 100 years. It is easy to find headlines comparing the Spanish Flu and COVID-19, and a CTV News article states: “Despite a century's progress in science, 2020 is looking a lot like 1918.” And there are many similarities. According 6¢ to a CTV News article, The Chicago health commissioner in 1918 said “If you get it, stay at home, rest in bed, keep warm, drink hot drinks, and stay quiet until the symptoms are past.” Measures included closing schools and churches. Some places banned all public gatherings. Mandatory face masks mirror present day precautions taken by TransLink and many grocery stores like T&T Supermarket, Superstore, and Starbucks. Fines for public coughing and sneezing also existed. These fines are reminiscent of BC’s new mandate that allows police officers to hand out tickets to businesses for $2,000 and individuals for $200 for failing to follow provincial health guidelines. Winnipeg's fines at the time were $50 for spitting—which would be equal to $725.53 today. The differences between the 1918 pandemic and our pandemic now in 2020 are essential to know before coming to any conclusions. First, an important note that greatly differentiates us from 1918: There was a world war. Weakened soldiers travelling across the globe without access to proper information about the pandemic due to censorship was a huge reason for large death tolls and rapid spread. The war also had doctors overseas—so the shortage of medical professionals at home caused huge problems for many countries. Secondly, they had none of the antibiotics we have access to today which are used to treat secondary bacterial infections; experts suggest that the majority of those killed by the Spanish Flu actually died from secondary bacterial pneumonia. How deadly the most devastating flu in history was Another point to look at is how deadly this strain of influenza really was. Initially, WHO officials put COVID-19’s case fatality rate (CFR)—which means how many cases out of 100 confirmed cases would result in death— at 2 but then later revised it to 3.4 percent. Even though it was regularly mentioned that it is difficult to properly calculate CFR at the beginning of a pandemic, a common sentiment among news outlets was that this 2 to 3 percent was eerily reminiscent of the Spanish Flu’s CFR. Yet, as an article from Wired points out, the Spanish Flu did not have a CFR of two to three as many news outlets mistakenly report. The CEFR of the Spanish Flu is an alarming estimated 6 to 10 percent according to more recent and accurate calculations by Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist Jennifer Leigh, for example. In comparison, many of the updated estimates of COVID-19—obviously working with incomplete data—have now dropped to somewhere around 1 percent. It is important to note that during 1918 medical records were not as advanced as they are now, but the estimates put the number of worldwide deaths at around 25 million people for the Spanish Flu...on the low end—100 million on the high end. At home in BC, entire Haida settlements were wiped out by the 1918 flu. While COVID-19 has definitely had a few The United Nations reports that a proximate $1 trillion and 100 million jobs worldwide is the loss the tourism industry will be taking—an industry that employs 1 in 10 people globally.