cases where young and healthy people in the prime
of their lives have died, the data shows that for
Canada (as of September 6) of 9,011 deaths, more
than 70 percent of deaths happened to those that
are 80 years of age and higher, nearly 20 percent of
deaths happened to those that are in the 70 to 79
age range, around 7 percent of deaths happened
to those aged 60 to 69, and a bit over 2 percent in
ages 50 to 59—accounting for almost all deaths. In
stark contrast, the 1918 influenza hit young people
hard; 50 percent of all of those who died to the
Spanish Flu were aged 20 to 40, and 99 percent
were younger than 65 years. Another important
note about COVID-19 that the CDC states: “For
6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause
mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in
addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6
additional conditions or causes per death.”

SARS 2003
With one of the highest CFRs among all
epidemics—which the WHO puts at 15 percent—
SARS is one of the most lethal illnesses on this
list. It is similar to COVID-19 considering that
the greatest risk is for those that are older (CFR
is 50 percent for those 65 and older), and the
CFR is much lower (dropping to a range of 15
to 1 percent) in younger people. While it is not
a pandemic like COVID because it was not as
widespread globally, this 2003 scare has many
comparable lessons for us now. SARS is also a
coronavirus (also known as SARS-CoV) that came
out of China which affects the respiratory system
and spreads through respiratory droplets.
Contact tracing, a precaution taken now
in hospitals, some restaurants, and even small
personal gatherings, was also taken during
SARS. Because the symptoms of SARS-CoV are
so extreme, it was simple to identify cases and
quarantine them to prevent spread. Actually, in
Canada, all 438 suspected SARS cases could be
traced to one 78-year-old Canadian woman in
Toronto who had just come home from Hong
Kong. In response, the hospital that held the SARS
patients shut down emergency and intensive care
services and asked those who had recently visited
to quarantine. Airports scanned for high fevers.
Lockdowns did not occur across the country unlike
COVID-19, but all those who were exposed to

 

SARS were asked to quarantine for 10 days. Many
willingly quarantined in their homes.

SARS and COVID-19: struggles in the
tourism industry
Another similarity between these two
coronaviruses is the shutdown of travel and
tourism. Only 26 countries were affected by this
outbreak (small compared to the 188 countries
COVID-19 has reached) and 774 people
worldwide died from SARS. Non-essential travel
to most countries was cut. This had a great impact
on the countries who faced this epidemic—and
even those that did not. Countries that had no
infections saw a huge dip. It was estimated by the
World Travel and Tourism Council that up to three
million people working in the tourism industry
lost their jobs and it reduced the global GDP by
$33 billion. Canada took an estimated hit of $5.25
billion. Asian countries that were nearly or totally
unaffected saw tourist arrivals drop by 70 percent
or more.

COVID-19 certainly shares this struggle
with SARS, but experts estimate that this blow
will be much harder. The United Nations reports
that a proximate $1 trillion and 100 million jobs
worldwide is the loss the tourism industry will be
taking—an industry that employs 1 in 10 people
globally. This is hugely negative in developing
countries and small areas where tourism represents
a large part of their exports. In fact, the same thing
has happened close to home. As a Global News
article reports, Banff's whole economy depends
on tourism and when COVID-19 restrictions were
put in place, an estimated 6,000 people lost
their jobs—in a town of around 9,000. As the
United Nations reports, 80 percent of all tourism
businesses are micro, small, or medium sized
enterprises (which also largely employ women and

young people).

Asian Flu 1957

After looking at the Spanish Flu and SARS,
this strain of influenza seems to be more like
COVID-19 in terms of fatality rate, worldwide
deaths, age ranges affected, and pandemic
practices.

 

tt §

First and foremost, the CFR of the 1957 flu
was 0.6 percent. While COVID-19’s is current is
higher—around 1 percent—that number is still in
flux. And considering that the general trend for
Canada and the US is that recorded infections are
consistent or growing but deaths are stagnating or
dropping (for example, in Canada new cases are
consistently in the 300 to 700 range but deaths
have generally been in the single digit range since
the beginning of July), we could be looking at a
reduction in COVID-19's CFR as well.

As of September 8, there are about 891,000
deaths worldwide due to COVID-19. At the end
of the 1957 flu, about one to two million people
had died from the disease. And while COVID-19 is
not yet finished, the rate of infections and deaths
is similar considering that the 1957 flu ended in
1958—lasting a year, almost similar to COVID-19's
current stretch (which we first heard reports of in
December 2019). While we cannot know when
coronavirus will end, the rate of deaths is much
more comparable to this 1957 influenza than the
Spanish Flu for example—which killed significantly
more people in three months than COVID-19 has
over nearly nine.

Another similarity to consider is in the severity.
Like COVID, some cases of this flu were mild and
others developed very serious and threatening
conditions after being infected. The age groups
affected are also very similar seeing how the
elderly and those with pre-existing conditions were
most likely to be at risk. A dissimilarity to note
between these two pandemics is the economic
impact. There was only some interruption in
society, as most of those who were missing
from their regular roles were school children,
teachers, and healthcare workers. The impact of
this disruption caused little economic issues and
recovery was “almost immediate.”

When reviewing pandemics and epidemics, it is
clear that we have lived through many disastrous
periods in history—many of which have created

a healthy fear in us for the future of the current
coronavirus. And while it is good practice to be
appropriately anxious, a side-by-side of many of
the statistics of each pandemic can put our mind
at ease when overzealous comparisons are made.

For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.
For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on
average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”

  

 

\

Illustration by Udeshi Seneviratne