. jargon,, page The computer industry 1s on its way to becoming the fastest growing manufactur- ing concern in the world and by lan Clayton personal computers are a popular topic with just about everyone. Even if you believe that you have absolutely no apti- tude for computers and may be ‘intimidated by computer you will probably still admit to being at least a little curious. Most of us are aware that a growing number of par- ents, teachers, students, businessmen, professionals and tradespeople are buying computers and using them in their professional and personal lives. Non-owners don’t want to be left out and are anxious to learn about computers even if it means buying one. . The problem of buying a computer is, however, quite another matter. The ‘choice of hardware is vast. There are 8-bit machines, 16-bit machines, rom & ram, prim- ary and secondary memory, operating systems, central processors, chips, _ bits, The Douglas College Nuclear Awareness Group willbe holding a panel discussion Should Douglas College ~ becomea Nuclear Free Zone? The panel will include faculty members Jim Davies, Kathleen Smith, and Howard Eaton. Advances being made in meteorology Over the past 20 years the art science of meteorologi- cal prognostication has ad- vanced considerably - partic- ularly for three to four day forecasts, less so for one to two days but the reliability of long term forecasts (30 plus days) has not improved and perhaps never. will ac- cording to climatologist Brian Sagar of the geogra- ‘phy department at Simon Fraser University. ‘‘Weather balloons, satel- lites and number-crunching computers have given us access to a lot more informa- tion,’’ says Sagar, ‘‘but e- ven numerical weather pre- diction models coupled with historical data can’t tell e- nough about the complex interactions between _ air, sea, land and ice surfaces of the earth. And modern man himself is added to the mix because our use of technolo- gy is also influencing wea- ther patterns. The variables are virtually infinite.’’ ‘‘Many people think of weather systems as large organized masses of air and clouds which move predicta- bly around the globe under the constant surveillance of sophisticated satellite sen- sors. This perspective begs the question, ‘if weather- ‘array of technical THE OTHER PRESS bytes and a_ bewildering terms which seem to defy logical explanation. Added to this is the ‘‘soft- ware factor’’ with its host of options and questions of compatibility: What is avail- able? What can it do? How do you evaluate if. it can do your task? How much does it cost...2 and ‘‘do you really need a computer?’’ Somewhere down the line you consider where to buy: the dealers, manufacturers, mail order, back-room ven- dors, the second-hand mar- ket, retail stores or build-it- yourself. Buyers generally must, ar- rive at a decision on their own merit and rightly ques- tion if paying the full retail price is necessary. Having finally settled on price and type of computer, there is the last devastating and sometimes fatal indeci- sion caused by fear of obso- lescence. Perhaps no other purchase decision has so many critical and incompre- os can see exactly what’s appening why should fore- asts so otten miss. the mark?’ What people do not _realize is that a large system may ‘contain many unrecog- nized smaller disturbances that can develop rapidly and produce totally unpredicta- ble clouds and rain when the forecast was for sunny skies, or vice versa.’’ Sagar explains that mo- dern weather prediction is based on manual and ma- chine analysis of computer- produced charts that show the developed high and low pressure patterns in the atmosphere. ‘’Weather pre- diction grids commonly in- volve thousands of square kilometres so on the large scale a forecast could be totally accurate but within each of these grids small disturbances, some con- tained in only a few square kilometres, can quickly change the speed and inten- sity of large recognized sys- tems. small disturbance can_ halt over a populated area to give the impression that the weatherman is balmy in the not-so-complimentary sense of the word.’’ So why not use much smaller grids? “At the present time there is problem of machine capability, or more specifi- cally, the inability of compu- ters to handle the vastly increased amount of data which such a change would produce. The costs,both in terms of human ‘and finan- cial resources would be as- 4 In such cases the_ Thursday, February 16, 1984. fanaa: A calculated risk hensible criteria as the first computer buy. The overload often leaves the buyer ex- hausted and _ totally con- fused. Burnt-out shoppers often conclude that they never wanted a computer anyway or abandon all logic and buy the first computer they see on the trip. Still others take a more reasoned response and sustain themselves end- lessly in a state of imminent purchase awaiting that ideal buy. The result is that buyers tronomical and even if the resources were committed the payoff may be marginal given the unpredictability of systems within systems.’ Sagar says many people are also under the miscon- ception that there are met- eorological stations all over the place with people busily feeding information — into some giant computer pro- grammed to make instant analyses. “Actually ther are only 20 synoptic reporting stations in B.C. and almost all of these are located in popula- ted areas below 1,000 me- tres. And to the west, where most of our weather comes from, ther are no stations, only data derived from satel- lite ‘eyes in the sky’.’’ Sagar says other factors, or ‘‘weather linkages’’ are becoming better understood that they still lend a factor of unpredictability to forecasting. ‘‘For instance, seemingly random changes in the atmospheric pattern - over B.C. and the adjacent Pacific could result in a period of prolonged cold temperatures. This type of occurrence can be followed by a series of unusual years. The atmosphere itself doesn’t have a memory but other physical factors con- nected to the atmospheric system can serve as surro- gate memories. For ex- ample, a cold year would make for lower ocean sur- face temperatures which would directly modify the atmospheric conditions by causing anomalous air pres- often fade just before they actually purchase something and retailers are wary of putting out for yet another | apparition. This unfortu- nately compounds the con- sumer aggravation and the cycle continues. In spite of the obstacles, interest in computers has never been higher and re- tailers are struggling thro- ugh thin smiles to cope with the unending line of mixed motives and inspired ques- tions. directions, sures, wind ‘moisture content and so on. ‘Such interactions may, by affecting the energy bud- get of the. earth’s atmos- phere, bring about subtle and not-so-subtle changes in climate. But sometimes it’s impossible to pinpoint the actual cause or causes of the climatic variability.’’ “Sunspot activity may contribute to unexpected and unpredictable varia- tions. Others cite modifica- tion of atmospheric energe- tics caused by _ industrial pollution, increasing carbon dioxide content in the at- mosphere, and natural e- vents such as severe volcan- ic eruptions as contributing to change at the most basic -meteorological levels.’’ Stressing that he is by no means negative about ad- vances in weather forecast- ing, Sagar says it is obvious that science and human ob- servation have led to a fairly high degree of accuracy in prognostication. ‘‘We know that meteorologists are right about 80 per cent of the time if you look at the large picture. But given the num- bér of variables and allow- ing that the complex inter- actions of natural and man- made forces seem beyond man’s comprehension, it’s likely that we will never be capable of 100 per cent accuracy. “Some of my colleagues may disagree, but I’m not so sure | don’t prefer a certain amount of unpredictability in the weather. Think about ft @