issue 07 / volume 41

opinions // 19

A coup in North Korea could be worse than the status quo

» The devil we (kinda) know is taking a few baby steps in the right direction

Patrick Vaillancourt
Columnist

t’s not the first time a
North Korean leader has
gone unseen for a prolonged

period, but in the ongoing
disappearance of 31-year-
old Kim Jong-un, it’s raising
eyebrows around the world.

The “Supreme Leader”
of the Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea (DPRK)
was last seen on September 3,
when he attended a concert in
Pyongyang.

There is no shortage
of theories that attempt to
explain Kim’s disappearance:
some say he’s too ill; others say
he’s dead or in prison. No one
can truly be sure, but there
are some telling signs, which
may lead people to believe that
there is, in fact, a coup d’état
taking place in North Korea.

Since the Korean War
ended in 1953, the world has
paid little attention to North
Korea. Yes, belligerent acts
in the DPRK have been the
subject of numerous United
Nations’ resolutions and
worldwide condemnation, but
for the most part, we've let
what happens in North Korea’s
political landscape play out
without intervention.

If there truly is a coup
underway, the world may
now be wishing it had done
something, understanding
that if the dynasty falls,
there’s a high probability that
whomever takes the reigns in
North Korea will plot a path
south and to war.

Kim Jong-un leads a regime
that should be dragged before
the International Criminal
Court to answer for hundreds
of thousands, if not millions,
of counts of crimes against
humanity. The Supreme
Leader has not done much (as
far as we know) in terms of
dismantling political prison
camps or the random summary
executions of its people. Kim
is also the leader of the most
secretive, impoverished, and
repressive country in the
world. His record is evidently
not great.

All of that
notwithstanding, Kim has
done one thing that is a clear
break from his father’s style of
governing. While Kim Jong-il
relished the role of commander
of the military, which was
evident by routine military
inspections, Kim Jong-un’s
industrial and commercial
inspections makes him appear

It's economic versus
military interests;
it's pitting Kim
Jong-un’s plans for
the country against
his father’s legacy.

more concerned about the

: overall economy. That’s the

: younger Kim’s redeeming

: quality; the one thing the

: rest of the world can look to
: and say he’s trying to change
: things.

It also makes him

vulnerable among the

: elites of his country, who

: are predominantly military

: officers. If the military isn’t

: getting the attention it

: expected from the son of Kim
: Jong-il, they may be thinking

: about changing the leader,

: which creates a power vacuum
: with no heir apparent. More

: often than not—as has been

: proven through thousands of

: years of history—when no one
: is clear on who is in charge, it
: leads to civil war.

While much of the

information we have on the

: events in North Korea comes

: from defectors and spies, it’s

: clear that there is a conflict

: in the higher ranks of the

: DPRK’s governance apparatus.
: It’s economic versus military

: interests; it’s pitting Kim Jong-
: un’s plans for the country

: against his father’s legacy.

The only thing keeping

North Korea calm is that

: for the last six decades, the

: machinery of North Korea’s

: government has focused on

: one family, the Kim family.

: The general public has been

: taught to regard Kim Jong-un,
: his father, and his grandfather,
: as benevolent men with divine
: gifts and talents. The military

: cannot simply decide to take

: up arms against Kim without

: fearing a backlash from the

: general population. On the

: other hand, how long will

: the military brass continue to

: tolerate Kim? He can’t stay out
: of sight forever.

So we come back to civil

: war—in a nuclear-armed
: North Korea.

Perhaps the rest of the

world should take a moment,
: stop mocking the regime we

: know about and think about

: the possible scenarios if Kim

: were to be chased from power.

 

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