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Editor-in-Chief

 

new year brings many things—including

weather predictions from The Farmers’
Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
The Farmers’ Almanac has nearly 1.3-million
followers on Facebook and 1.7-million copies
sold annually; the Old Farmer’s Almanac has
more than 1.5-million followers and more than
3-million copies sold annually. These books
predict long-term weather have a lengthy
history in both the US and Canada. Although
they have a large following (as far as weather
related content goes) the popular Google search
“is The Farmers' Almanac witchcraft?” implies
that few know how it works or what it is.

An almanac is a type of book that contains
information about the weather, star positions,
astrology, jokes, and other entertaining
and informative content. The etymology of
“almanac” is uncertain, and commonly debated.
One of the original almanacs was called Poor
Richard’s Almanack and was actually made by
Benjamin Franklin. (He actually put the first
version of his quote “No pain, no gain” in the
publication—known initially as “there are no
gains without pain.”) Almanacs were extremely
common in the late 16th century, and the only
book that outsold them was the bible. The hole
in the corner was used to hang the book from
a nail in your outhouse—the publishers still
put the hole in the corner in continuing the
tradition. Both almanacs use the term “farmer”
since everyone grew their own crops when
almanacs were first gaining popularity. Each of
the almanacs predict what the season will look
like, and both have been doing so for over 200
years. George Washington, the first president,
was still president at the time the book was
initially put out. (Donald Trump was the 45th
president for reference.) The website for the Old

 

While the almanacs are associated to old
wives’ tales (as they publish the superstitions)
each of their websites state that they don’t use
such information in their predictions. Each
weather-predicting service states that they
use some old formulas, but have updated
many of the factors they consider. The Old
Farmer's Almanac explains that they study
sunspots, consistent weather patterns, and the
atmosphere for their forecast; The Farmers’
Almanac considers sunspots, tides and the
moon, and the positions of planets in their
calculations. Many of the factors the almanacs
consider range from somewhat consequential to
basically irrelevant in the eyes of meteorologists.
Tides, the moon, and planetary positions are
seen as irrelevant to negligible—but sunspots
do have some impact on the weather. National
Weather Service meteorologists do point out
that such data only impacts weather at the
length of years or decades—and cannot help
accurately determine the specifics in forecasting
the seasons.

As mentioned before, something almanacs
did keep from their days from 200 plus years
ago are their old formulas and a strange
secretive tradition; the The Old Farmer's
Almanac literally has the formula their creator
made locked up ina black box at headquarters,
while The Farmers’ Almanac has had very few
people access their formula (only seven in the
company’s lengthy existence). The current
person who calculates the weather for The
Farmers’ Almanac uses a pseudonym, Caleb
Weatherbee, to ensure protection of the
company’s secrets.

While this move can be partially
understood from a fiscal perspective in keeping
their business exclusive, as far as the practice
of science goes, this secretive approach at best
discredits their method and, at worst, can
be viewed as fraudulent. A method which is

> The inaccurate science of meteorology le

 

they can add their own contributions to refine
the method.

The almanacs state that they are 80 percent
accurate, but multiple studies all put their
guesses closer to the neighbourhood of 50.

As the study “Testing the Farmer’s Almanac”
suggests, this percentage of accuracy is no

Farmer's Almanac uses this as a humble brag,
but there certainly is some negative association
with how dated their formulas and methods are
for predicting the weather.

claimed to be 80 percent accurate in predicting
the weather should be shared with the public.
Good science is reproduced and peer reviewed.
And, if others can have access to the formula,

ts

Regarding their formula, the secretive approach the almanacs take at best

discredits their method and, at worst, can be viewed as fraudulent.